Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
